How Uhuru will make raila the fifth President by all means after the fall of BBI

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The Mt Kenya bloc accounted for more than half (53 per cent) of the 7.4 million votes that Uhuru polled in the October 2017 repeat presidential election, which was boycotted by Raila.

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Vote-rich Mt Kenya bloc, which for the first time since 1992 looks set to be without a serious presidential contender, has been flipped into a battleground region that could swing the 2022 presidential race.

If past voting patterns hold, Deputy President William Ruto needs the region’s overwhelming support to replicate Jubilee’s past victories under President Uhuru Kenyatta. Voter apathy and any splitting of the bloc will fatally undermine his quest for the top seat.

Opposition leader Raila Odinga, if he is to vie, will benefit from voter apathy in the region since it hurts his rival’s cause and securing a fraction of the Mt Kenya vote for himself, assuming he holds onto his strongholds, will strongly boost to his bid to become Kenya’s fifth president.

The Mt Kenya bloc accounted for more than half (53 per cent) of the 7.4 million votes that Uhuru polled in the October 2017 repeat presidential election, which was boycotted by Raila.

With his legitimacy questioned, Uhuru had to rally his region to come out almost to a man, securing nearly 4 million votes with a turnout that averaged 98 per cent.

Rift Valley, Ruto’s stronghold, was second, followed by Nairobi.

When we talk of tyranny of numbers, In 2013, Uhuru and Ruto swept to power by the combined force of the two blocs, a political strategy popularised as the tyranny of numbers.

Then, Uhuru polled 6.1 million to secure 50.07 per cent of the national vote to avoid a runoff. Raila bagged 5.3 million in the election that Uhuru barely went over the 50-per cent mark by only 800,000 votes.

Uhuru widened the lead over Raila to 1.4 million in the 2017 presidential vote whose results were, however, nullified, occasioning the repeat vote.

An analysis from these past two polls indicate that the wins for the TNA-URP coalition in 2013 and Jubilee Party in 2017 could not have come without the huge voter turnouts averaging above 90 per cent in their strongholds.

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